Altcoin Profit Share Sinks to 12% as Short-Term Traders Take Losses
Altcoin profit share among short-term holders collapsed to about 12% of Glassnode's tracked tokens by end-October, down from roughly 80% in late September, according to a November 4 report from the on-chain analytics firm. The sharp reversal indicates that recent buyers who were selling at a profit just weeks earlier are now largely accepting losses on their positions.
The shift matters because it captures a rapid deterioration in realized outcomes for the most recent wave of altcoin buyers. When profitable spending contracts this quickly, it signals that the cohort of traders who entered positions in recent weeks are now underwater and selling into weakness rather than strength.
Short-Term Holders Flip to Loss-Taking
Glassnode uses short-term-holder spent output profit ratio, or STH-SOPR, to determine whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1 indicates profitable spending, while a reading below 1 indicates loss-making spending.
By end-October, the typical tracked token's short-term holders were selling at a small loss, the firm said. The 12% reading reflects the share of tokens in which recent holders exited positions above their cost basis, meaning the vast majority of the more than 300 tokens Glassnode tracks saw that cohort selling below what they paid.
When traders realize losses, they are parting with their tokens for less than what they originally paid. That kind of selling, viewed in isolation, cannot reveal whether the wave of exits is close to running its course or whether further declines remain in store.
September Rotation Gives Way to Losses
The current snapshot comes after a September market environment that looked very different, when spot buying drove a rotation into altcoins. During that earlier stretch, roughly 80% of the tokens in Glassnode's coverage universe were seeing profitable short-term-holder spending in late September.
The end-October profitability reading captures a subsequent period in which recent holders were accepting losses rather than locking in gains. The contraction in profitable spending across Glassnode's tracked tokens underscores how quickly conditions changed for the most recent cohort of altcoin buyers.
Altcoin Season Index Sits in Neutral Band
A separate gauge of market breadth offers a complementary view. BlockchainCenter publishes the Altcoin Season Index, which measures how its eligible top-50 coins have performed relative to Bitcoin across a 90-day window.
The site's November 4 snapshot puts the index at 41, well below the 75 mark needed to qualify as altcoin season and sitting inside the neutral range of 26 to 74. BlockchainCenter defines altcoin season as a period when 75% of its eligible top-50 coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens.
At the November 4 reading of 41, fewer than half of the eligible major coins had managed to beat Bitcoin over the trailing 90 days. A coin can appreciate in dollar terms and still fall behind Bitcoin when Bitcoin climbs at a faster pace, so the index tracks relative performance rather than absolute price direction.
Two Measures, Different Universes
These two indicators cover distinct sets of tokens, use different observation windows and rely on separate methodologies, which means they cannot be merged into one figure or treated as tracking the same group of assets. Glassnode examines spending behavior across more than 300 tokens, while BlockchainCenter runs a performance test on a top-50 universe.
The late-September and end-October profitability observations also precede the November 4 index snapshot. Recent holders realizing losses can still coincide with a coin posting a stronger relative return when measured across a longer timeframe, because the two indicators capture different aspects of market behavior.
Read side by side, the indicators draw a line between how much profit recent buyers have left on the table and which assets are actually leading the market. Because each measure draws on its own token set and timeframe, neither can confirm that new altcoin demand has arrived or that prices have carved out a lasting floor.
What Would Confirm an Altcoin Recovery
With recent holders broadly cashing out at a loss while 90-day relative performance stays in neutral territory, the case for broad altcoin leadership remains unproven. Fresh buying interest and a durable price floor are not established by either gauge.
Evidence of a more convincing turnaround would come from spending profitability climbing on a sustained basis while a growing number of coins outpace Bitcoin. That combination would speak to both the realized results of recent sellers and the breadth of participation in relative gains.
Because neither gauge measures incoming demand for altcoins directly, an uptick in profitability by itself would not settle the question of whether new buyers have stepped in. Proof that buyers are absorbing the tokens being sold would fill the gap these indicators leave open.
The firm's more upbeat scenario for altcoins depends on Bitcoin maintaining support while it retests that level. Under that framework, the recovery argument would gain traction if spending profitability kept improving and a wider set of altcoins began outpacing Bitcoin.
Conclusion
Profitable short-term-holder spending across Glassnode's tracked altcoins fell to about 12% by end-October from roughly 80% in late September, while BlockchainCenter's November 4 Altcoin Season Index reading of 41 sits in neutral territory. Together, the two measures show recent altcoin buyers taking losses and fewer than half of major coins outperforming Bitcoin over 90 days. The next concrete signal to watch is whether spending profitability recovers alongside an expanding share of coins beating Bitcoin, which Glassnode's framework treats as conditional on Bitcoin holding support during its retest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of altcoins saw profitable short-term-holder spending at end-October?
About 12% of Glassnode's more than 300 tracked tokens saw short-term holders selling at a profit by end-October, according to the firm's November 4 report. That was down sharply from roughly 80% in late September, indicating a rapid shift from profit-taking to loss-taking among recent altcoin buyers.
What is Glassnode's STH-SOPR and how does it measure altcoin losses?
Glassnode uses short-term-holder spent output profit ratio, or STH-SOPR, to gauge whether recent buyers exit their positions in the green or in the red. Values above 1 point to coins being spent at a profit, and values under 1 point to coins being spent at a loss. At end-October, the firm's data showed the typical tracked token's short-term holders exiting slightly below cost.
What was the Altcoin Season Index reading on November 4?
BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index read 41 on November 4, placing it within the neutral band of 26 to 74. The site declares altcoin season when three quarters of the eligible top-50 coins, a list that leaves out stablecoins and asset-backed tokens, have beaten Bitcoin across 90 days. At 41, fewer than half of eligible coins were beating Bitcoin.
Why can't the Glassnode and BlockchainCenter readings be combined into one figure?
The two readings describe different universes, observation periods and metrics. Glassnode tracks spending profitability across more than 300 tokens, while BlockchainCenter tests 90-day relative performance of its eligible top-50 coins against Bitcoin. They cannot be combined into a single percentage or read as a change in one shared group.
What would signal a broader altcoin recovery according to Glassnode?
A broader recovery would be more consistent with sustained improvement in spending profitability alongside an expanding share of coins beating Bitcoin. Glassnode's more constructive altcoin outlook is conditional on Bitcoin holding support during its retest. Direct evidence of buyers absorbing selling would address the demand question current indicators leave open.