Crypto Midterm Referendum: 62% of Voters Distrust Trump’s Oversight

Crypto Midterm Referendum: 62% of Voters Distrust Trump’s Oversight

by | Nov 4, 2026 | Opinion

A majority of registered U.S. voters do not trust the Trump administration's oversight of the crypto industry, according to a poll released Wednesday by Public Opinion Strategies. The survey found that 62% of respondents lack confidence in the administration's handling of digital asset regulation, while 25% considered crypto an important issue in the midterm elections.

The results suggest crypto policy has become a measurable electoral factor as voters head to the polls. Roughly two-thirds of respondents held a negative view of the crypto industry overall, and 73% opposed government officials maintaining personal interests in crypto-related businesses.

Prediction Markets Favor Democratic Sweep

As voting concluded Tuesday, prediction markets increasingly priced in Democratic control of both congressional chambers. On Kalshi, the probability of Democrats taking both the Senate and House reached 76%, while the odds of Democrats winning only the House stood at 20%.

Market participants assigned a 93.9% probability to Democrats retaking the House majority, according to Kalshi data. In the Senate, 78% of traders predicted a Democratic victory, with both Kalshi and Polymarket forecasting Democrats would secure at least 53 seats, including wins in Republican strongholds such as Texas, Ohio and Kansas.

Approximately $1.9 billion has been wagered on midterm election outcomes across prediction platforms, with $1.3 billion on Kalshi and $600 million on Polymarket. More than 7,000 individual bets have been placed on races ranging from specific candidate statements to final results.

Democrats Secure Historic Gains

Early results confirmed the prediction market pricing, with Democrats taking control of both the Senate and House of Representatives. The Guardian reported that the scale of Democratic successes exceeded expectations, with the party flipping seats in Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Maine and South Carolina.

In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews won a Senate seat that had not elected a Democrat since 1998. The party secured at least 53 Senate seats, ensuring a clear majority in the 100-member chamber, with additional victories still possible as counting continued.

The election produced several historic firsts. Peggy Flanagan became the first Native American U.S. senator, representing Minnesota, while David Crowley won Wisconsin's gubernatorial race as the state's first Black governor. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in nearly a century.

Hakeem Jeffries is positioned to become the first Black speaker of the House. He declared that America is back and promised to hold the crooks accountable, according to The Guardian.

Trump Responds to Losses

President Donald Trump attributed the Republican losses to his absence from the ballot, despite having campaigned with the message that voters should treat the election as a referendum on his presidency. He posted on social media that if he had been a candidate, "we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!"

Trump later appeared in a social media post wearing a hat emblazoned with the word "VETO." Since the start of his second term, Republicans had controlled both chambers of Congress, which along with the conservative Supreme Court majority had given the party control over all three branches of the federal government.

Implications for Crypto Policy

The Democratic takeover creates immediate obstacles for the administration's legislative agenda. Control of the Senate allows Democrats to reject Trump's nominees for cabinet positions, ambassador posts and judicial appointments, including potential Supreme Court vacancies.

In the House, Democratic control ensures legislation cannot pass without bipartisan support. The party also gains the power to launch investigations into the Trump administration and to impeach federal officials, potentially affecting oversight of crypto policy and regulatory appointments.

The poll data indicating voter distrust of the administration's crypto oversight suggests regulatory approaches may face increased scrutiny. With 73% of voters opposing government officials holding personal interests in crypto businesses, ethics rules and conflict-of-interest legislation could emerge as priorities for the new majority.

Voter Sentiment and Industry Outlook

The Public Opinion Strategies survey indicates that crypto has become a partisan issue with electoral consequences. While only 25% of voters ranked it as important, the negative sentiment toward the industry and specific distrust of the administration's approach created headwinds for Republican candidates.

The prediction market accuracy in forecasting the Democratic sweep, including specific state outcomes in Texas, Ohio and Kansas, demonstrated the growing influence of these platforms in political analysis. The $1.9 billion in wagers placed on midterm outcomes exceeded previous political betting volumes.

With Democrats preparing to take control of both chambers, the crypto industry faces a shift in congressional oversight. The new majority's ability to investigate administration officials and block nominees may affect the implementation of digital asset policies that 62% of voters said they distrusted.

Conclusion

The midterm results establish Democratic control of both congressional chambers, ending Republican dominance of the federal government's legislative branch. The Public Opinion Strategies poll showing 62% voter distrust of the Trump administration's crypto oversight, combined with 73% opposition to officials holding crypto business interests, indicates digital asset policy will face heightened scrutiny. With Democrats gaining investigatory powers and control over nominations, the administration's approach to crypto regulation may encounter significant resistance when the new Congress convenes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What percentage of voters distrust Trump's crypto oversight?

According to a Public Opinion Strategies poll released Wednesday, 62% of registered U.S. voters do not trust the Trump administration's oversight of the crypto industry. The survey also found that 73% of respondents opposed government officials having personal interests in crypto-related businesses.

How did prediction markets forecast the midterm results?

Prediction markets accurately forecast Democratic victories, with Kalshi pricing a 76% probability of Democrats taking both the Senate and House. Approximately $1.9 billion was wagered on midterm outcomes across platforms, with $1.3 billion on Kalshi and $600 million on Polymarket.

Which historic firsts occurred in the Senate races?

Peggy Flanagan became the first Native American U.S. senator, representing Minnesota. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in nearly a century, while Annie Andrews won a South Carolina seat that had not elected a Democrat since 1998.

What powers do Democrats gain from controlling Congress?

Democratic control of the Senate allows the party to reject Trump's nominees for cabinet positions, ambassador posts and judicial appointments. In the House, Democrats can block legislation without bipartisan support and launch investigations into the Trump administration, including the power to impeach federal officials.

How did Trump respond to the Republican losses?

Trump blamed the results on his absence from the ballot, posting on social media that if he had been a candidate, "we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!" He later appeared in a post wearing a hat with the word "VETO" despite having told voters during the campaign to treat the election as a referendum on his presidency.

Sources

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