Circle Expands Into 40 Emerging Markets as Stablecoin Demand Grows

Circle Expands Into 40 Emerging Markets as Stablecoin Demand Grows

by | Oct 19, 2026 | Adoption

Circle is preparing to expand into about 40 emerging and developing countries, chief executive Jeremy Allaire told Reuters, as the company positions itself for a broader phase of stablecoin adoption.

The move matters because Circle ranks as the largest regulated stablecoin issuer globally, with roughly a quarter of the market, giving its international push direct implications for the reach of USDC and for Circle's stock story.

Allaire made the comments during the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, where he described blockchain as moving out of the early adopter phase and into mainstream scaling.

Why Circle Is Targeting Emerging Markets

Allaire linked the expansion to rising demand across Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, where businesses and individuals are seeking ways to take part in an internet-based economy.

He also said stablecoin adoption is happening mostly outside the United States, underscoring why the company is looking abroad for its next stage of growth.

The company's strategy reflects a wider pattern in stablecoin use, with demand increasingly coming from payments and financial infrastructure needs rather than only from crypto-native users.

In that context, Circle appears to be treating stablecoins less as a niche settlement tool and more as an entry point into mainstream transactions, particularly in places where local banking and payment systems may be less flexible.

A broader presence across multiple markets could make it easier for regional partners to build compliant stablecoin services, though it depends on regulatory and banking integration remaining workable in each jurisdiction.

Payments Push and the Tazapay Deal

Circle's geographic ambition is being paired with a targeted expansion in payments infrastructure.

As part of that effort, Circle struck a deal to buy Tazapay, a Singapore-based cross-border payments platform, in an all-stock transaction valued at $400 million that is expected to close in 2027, Cointelegraph reported.

If completed, the acquisition would fit Circle's effort to scale beyond early adopters and deepen its presence in cross-border payments.

Cross-border payments are a natural proving ground for stablecoins because they demand speed, transparency and predictable settlement, characteristics dollar stablecoins are designed to provide.

Still, integration and regulatory alignment are likely to determine whether the acquisition accelerates usage in the targeted regions, and a deal's headline value does not automatically translate into faster adoption unless the acquired platform can expand its partner base, satisfy compliance requirements and cut costs enough to make customers choose stablecoin settlement over traditional alternatives.

The practical question for investors and operators is whether this broader footprint will produce sustained usage rather than one-off pilots.

USDC Usage and Market Position

Circle earns income from the reserves behind USDC, so growth in circulation and usage remains central to the business.

USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion in the second quarter, up 19% from a year earlier.

By market capitalization, USDC still trails Tether's USDt as the second-biggest dollar-backed stablecoin, but Bernstein said it has made substantial gains in transaction activity.

Bernstein's analysis, cited by Cointelegraph, found that USDC's share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume climbed from roughly 40% in 2025 to above 60% so far in 2026, moving ahead of USDt on that measure.

That matters because transaction volume is often used as a proxy for how actively stablecoins are moving across exchanges, payment rails and settlement flows, while market capitalization can reflect price and liquidity.

Sustained gains in transaction share can indicate real adoption by payment service providers and market participants, though readers should watch how adjusted volume is defined and whether the shift reflects broader usage or a change in where activity is routed.

Arc, AI Payments and Revenue Beyond Reserves

Circle's Arc system has been adopted by firms including BlackRock, Visa and Standard Chartered.

On an earnings AMA, Allaire said Arc's public Mainnet launches on September 16 and said AI agents are driving use.

Those AI agents are being used to carry out very small payments, frequently amounting to fractions of a cent, in exchange for web research and data.

Bernstein analysts also highlighted early signs of stablecoin usage tied to payments executed by AI agents, and if automated systems increasingly need programmable, low-volatility settlement assets, dollar stablecoins like USDC could become a default bridge currency for certain workflows, though the durability and scale of that activity beyond early experiments remains uncertain.

Allaire has also said Circle is building other revenue lines beyond reserve income, including its payments network and Arc.

Regulation, Competition and What Comes Next

In July, Circle secured a federal bank charter, placing it among the first stablecoin issuers to do so.

The U.S. Genius Act is set to take effect in January, and Allaire described it as a watershed moment on the grounds that the world will have legal digital dollars.

At the same time, banks in the United States and Europe are developing their own stablecoins, adding competitive pressure as Circle expands abroad.

Allaire said he views that trend as a sign of a healthy market, even as Tether continues to hold a much larger share of the market.

That gap matters for Circle stock as it expands, especially with the shares down 23% over the last six months.

Bernstein analysts have turned bullish on Circle and anticipate a new growth cycle for USDC over the next 12 months, pointing to renewed momentum in broader crypto markets, improving U.S. regulatory clarity, the growth of tokenized capital markets and a wider role for stablecoins in payments.

Circle's next steps will likely depend on whether its market expansion and payments strategy translate into sustained USDC usage, and for the rest of 2026 and into 2027 investors should monitor regulatory developments affecting stablecoins alongside concrete evidence that transaction share growth holds up across regions and partners.

Conclusion

Circle is set on a much wider international buildout, with roughly 40 developing markets in its sights and a payments acquisition that could support that push. The company enters that next phase with a large regulated position in stablecoins, rising USDC circulation and new infrastructure such as Arc, but it still trails Tether in overall market share. The next concrete milestones are the Genius Act taking effect in January and the expected closing of the Tazapay deal in 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many emerging markets is Circle planning to enter?

Circle is preparing to expand into about 40 emerging and developing countries, according to CEO Jeremy Allaire. He told Reuters the company is positioning for broader stablecoin adoption as demand grows outside the United States.

Why is Circle expanding into Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East?

Allaire said demand is rising in those regions as individuals and businesses look for ways to participate in an internet-based economy. The expansion also reflects growing stablecoin use in payments and financial infrastructure, not just among crypto-native users.

What is Circle's Tazapay acquisition and when will it close?

Circle agreed to buy Singapore-based cross-border payments platform Tazapay in a $400 million all-stock deal, Cointelegraph reported. The transaction is expected to close in 2027 and would support Circle's broader payments expansion.

How large is USDC circulation now?

USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion in the second quarter, up 19% from a year earlier. Circle earns income from the reserves behind USDC, making circulation growth important to its business.

How does USDC compare with Tether in 2026?

USDC remains behind Tether's USDt in market capitalization, but Bernstein said USDC has gained sharply in transaction activity. Its share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose from about 40% in 2025 to more than 60% so far in 2026.

Sources

Solana DEX Volume Tops Ethereum 2.22x on One-Eighth the Capital

Solana DEX Volume Tops Ethereum 2.22x on One-Eighth the Capital

by | Oct 19, 2026 | Ethereum

Tokens worth $1.57 billion changed hands on Solana's decentralised exchanges in the 24 hours to Monday morning, October 19, more than double the $706 million recorded on Ethereum over the same period, according to CryptoTicker, citing DefiLlama data queried that morning. The Solana DEX volume came to $1.566 billion across all of the network's exchanges combined, even though its applications hold only about an eighth of the capital committed on Ethereum.

The divergence matters because it separates two stories that are often conflated: how much trading a network hosts and how much capital investors have committed to it. Sunday's turnover on Solana ran at 2.22 times the Ethereum figure, and the weekly comparison shows that lead growing, CryptoTicker reported.

Solana DEX Volume Against Committed Capital

Measured by total value locked, the capital investors have committed to a blockchain's applications, Ethereum holds $49.86 billion against Solana's $5.89 billion, which works out to roughly eight and a half times as much. Two networks whose committed capital differs by a factor of eight therefore come out in reverse order on trading volume.

Setting a day's trading against committed capital yields a turnover figure that the usual dashboards do not carry: it shows how frequently a single dollar changes hands within 24 hours. Solana's calculation divides $1.566 billion of volume by $5.89 billion of locked capital, giving 26.6 percent, meaning roughly a quarter of all committed capital passes through trading daily. Ethereum's equivalent math divides $706 million by $49.86 billion, giving 1.4 percent, which puts Solana's turnover around 19 times as high.

Across the full week, trading on Solana totalled $14.03 billion, 22.6 percent higher than the prior week. The same query for Ethereum shows a 20.5 percent daily increase to $705.9 million, while its weekly total of $8.07 billion was just 1.2 percent higher than the week before, CryptoTicker reported.

Why Cheap Blocks Drive Turnover

Turnover, taken as a metric, carries no verdict in either direction; it simply describes how a network is built. A high reading indicates heavy trading activity resting on a small capital base, while low turnover means capital sits and works rather than being moved.

A transaction on Solana costs fractions of a cent and a block closes in under a second, conditions under which a trade pays off at tiny price differences. Under those conditions, bots and aggregators repeatedly purchase an identical token on one venue and offload it on another within the same day, capturing spreads of only a few tenths of a percent each time, and each of those passes registers as volume in the statistics even though no fresh capital has flowed into the network, CryptoTicker reported.

The stablecoin base on Solana, money standing ready in dollar-pegged tokens such as USDC, came to $15.49 billion on Monday, around two and a half times the network's $5.89 billion in committed capital. Ethereum, by comparison, holds $144.04 billion in stablecoins against committed capital of $49.86 billion, a ratio of just under 3 to 1. On Solana an above-average share of money is parked in trading liquidity and a below-average share is tied up in lending and yield applications.

Committed Capital Counted in SOL

A dollar-measured TVL blends two components: the quantity of tokens deposited and the market price of those tokens, so the figure drops when the price falls even if nobody withdraws. CryptoTicker divided DefiLlama's daily TVL by CoinGecko's daily closing price over the past 120 days to strip out the price effect.

The result shows committed capital corresponded to 55.68 million SOL on October 19, down from 57.04 million on October 18 and 56.47 million on October 10. Looking back 90 days to July 21, the network held 63.75 million SOL, while the window's peak of 69.08 million was set on June 25. From that high, 19.4 percent of the deposited tokens have left in not quite four months, independent of the price, and on only 20 of 120 days was the figure lower than Monday's.

The counter-calculation separates the price problem from the quantity problem. From Sunday to Monday the SOL price rose 2.4 percent, from an average of $103.36 to $105.80, while committed capital slipped from $5.896 billion to $5.890 billion, a decline from 57.04 million to 55.68 million when counted in SOL. Daily volume picked up by a quarter over the same stretch, meaning the price rise came with more trading but less deposited capital, CryptoTicker reported.

Fees, Price Levels and ETF Flows

High turnover generates income. Fees accruing on the Solana blockchain added up to $9.71 million in the 24 hours to Monday morning and $79.76 million over seven days, according to DefiLlama data cited by CryptoTicker. Measured against committed capital of $5.89 billion, the daily figure amounts to a rate of 0.16 percent, which annualised puts it in the order of 60 percent of the capital committed today, an arithmetic check rather than a forecast because fees swing with trading. The check shows what the turnover ratio means economically: a network with little committed capital and a lot of trading earns from movement, not from sitting still.

SOL stood at $105.80 on Monday morning, 2.7 percent above the previous day but still 6.0 percent below its level a week ago, according to CoinGecko data as of October 19, 8:45 UTC. In the 24 hours to Monday morning the low was $100.48 and the high $106.05, leaving the price 5.3 percent above the daily low and 0.2 percent below the daily high. Solana's market capitalisation stood at $62.4 billion, with 589.4 million SOL in circulation out of a total of 636.0 million.

To the upside the next marker is the level of October 12, when SOL averaged $111.25 over the day; to the downside the round $100 stands, and its defence has now been running for five days. SOL remains 63.9 percent below its all-time high of $293.31 reached on January 19, 2025.

Fund flows tell a parallel story. Investors withdrew about $1 billion from spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs from October 1 to 16, with Ethereum funds seeing net outflows of $954.8 million and Solana funds $54.9 million, AOL reported. Relative to fund size, Ethereum's outflow represents about 6.4 percent of its $14.95 billion in net assets, while Solana's stands at about 3.4 percent of $1.62 billion, suggesting Ethereum ETF holders are exiting faster despite Solana's longer outflow streak. Solana's last ETF inflow was $1.3 million on October 2.

Alpenglow Upgrade and What Comes Next

Solana's Alpenglow upgrade on October 21 is the next catalyst, according to AOL, which described it as an update aimed at improving how validators reach consensus on new transactions. A positive ETF session afterward, the first inflow since October 2, would be the clearest sign buyers have returned, AOL reported, adding that investor enthusiasm for Solana ETFs remains muted.

Over the past 90 days Solana returned 36.7 percent compared with Ethereum's 29.3 percent, and it held its key support level during the recent decline, AOL reported. From the newsroom's point of view, CryptoTicker wrote, the turnover carries the story of Solana as the fastest trading venue, but it does not carry the story of capital inflows: volume rose 22.6 percent over seven days while committed capital counted in SOL fell and the price lost 6.0 percent.

Sunday's emission question also remains open, because no vote has been held on proposal SIMD-0550 since, CryptoTicker reported. If volume rises while TVL falls, turnover grows and the network lives more off short-term trading.

Conclusion

The week's opening established a clear split: Solana's decentralised exchanges turned over $1.566 billion in 24 hours, 2.22 times Ethereum's volume, on $5.89 billion of committed capital against Ethereum's $49.86 billion, a turnover rate of 26.6 percent against 1.4 percent. Counted in tokens rather than dollars, Solana's committed capital has fallen 19.4 percent from its June 25 high, even as trading rose 22.6 percent week on week.

The next concrete marker is the Alpenglow upgrade on October 21, followed by whether Solana ETFs record their first inflow since October 2. A vote on emissions proposal SIMD-0550 also remains pending.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did Solana DEX volume reach on October 19, 2026?

Tokens worth $1.57 billion changed hands on Solana's decentralised exchanges in the 24 hours to Monday morning, October 19, with the combined figure across all Solana DEXs at $1.566 billion, according to DefiLlama data cited by CryptoTicker. Ethereum recorded $706 million over the same period.

How does Solana's committed capital compare with Ethereum's?

Ethereum holds $49.86 billion in total value locked against Solana's $5.89 billion, a ratio of 8.5 to 1 in Ethereum's favour. Despite that gap, Solana traded 2.22 times Ethereum's DEX volume on Sunday, giving it a daily turnover of 26.6 percent of committed capital versus Ethereum's 1.4 percent.

What is daily turnover and why is Solana's 26.6 percent significant?

Daily turnover sets a day's trading volume against committed capital, showing how often the same dollar moves in a day. Solana's 26.6 percent means roughly a quarter of all committed capital passes through trading daily, around 19 times Ethereum's rate, reflecting a design where cheap, sub-second transactions make small-spread trading viable.

How much have Solana and Ethereum ETF investors withdrawn in October 2026?

Investors withdrew about $1 billion from spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs from October 1 to 16, AOL reported. Ethereum funds saw net outflows of $954.8 million, about 6.4 percent of their $14.95 billion in net assets, while Solana funds lost $54.9 million, about 3.4 percent of $1.62 billion.

When is Solana's Alpenglow upgrade and what would signal renewed demand?

The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled for October 21, 2026, and is aimed at improving how validators reach consensus on new transactions, according to AOL. The clearest sign that buyers have returned would be a positive Solana ETF session afterward, the first inflow since a modest $1.3 million on October 2.

Sources

JPMorgan to Bring JPM Coin Deposit Token to Ethereum for Institutional Clients

JPMorgan to Bring JPM Coin Deposit Token to Ethereum for Institutional Clients

by | Oct 19, 2026 | Ethereum

JPMorgan plans to open its JPM Coin token, which stands for dollar deposits held at the bank, to institutional clients on the Ethereum network, Bloomberg reported on Monday, October 19, 2026. The move extends the token beyond Base, the layer-2 blockchain built by Coinbase Global, where JPM Coin first launched in November 2025.

The expansion marks a step by the largest U.S. bank toward using public blockchain infrastructure for institutional payments and settlement, rather than relying solely on its private network. JPM Coin lets eligible clients transfer funds within seconds, around the clock. According to the bank, Ethereum's deep liquidity draws crypto companies that want to pay onchain as well as financial firms settling trades or backing tokenized assets.

Why JPMorgan chose Ethereum for JPM Coin

Emma Landriault, the head of Kinexys Labs at JPMorgan's blockchain division Kinexys, told Bloomberg in an interview that Ethereum won out because it carries deeper liquidity than competing networks and the bank's institutional clients already use it, according to CoinDesk. Landriault said JPMorgan picked the network for its liquidity and existing use among clients, Cointelegraph reported.

Opening the token up more broadly is meant to serve two groups, Landriault said: crypto firms looking to make payments onchain, and financial firms that require a digital token for settling trades or backing tokenized assets. Landriault did not say when JPM Coin would become available on Ethereum, CoinDesk reported.

Landriault framed the expansion as part of a broader trend. "We've clearly been in a year of further convergence between Wall Street and crypto," she said, according to CoinGape. "It's not just Wall Street going to public chains, but the institutional web3 players getting more embedded and partnering with traditional financial institutions," she added.

How the JPM Coin token works

JPM Coin represents U.S. dollar deposits held at JPMorgan and is built so institutional clients can move money and settle payments at any hour, with near real-time finality. The token is issued by Kinexys, JPMorgan's blockchain business unit, and the bank describes it as the first bank-issued USD-denominated deposit token, with the ticker JPMD.

Even though issuance happens on public networks, access to JPM Coin stays limited to vetted institutional participants, Cointelegraph reported. Crypto information platform Unfolded said the expansion points to banks making greater use of public blockchains, while noting that JPM Coin's status as a regulated bank deposit token means it is not broadly designed to integrate with decentralized finance, bloomingbit reported.

Deposit tokens like JPM Coin differ from stablecoins issued by non-bank companies: rather than a claim on reserves parked with a separate issuer, the token is a direct claim on deposits sitting at a regulated bank. The token got its start as an internal settlement mechanism, letting JPMorgan's institutional customers transact with one another over a permissioned network run by the bank, according to KuCoin.

From Base and Canton to Ethereum

The Ethereum plan comes after JPMorgan rolled out JPM Coin in November 2025 on Base, a layer-2 network tied to crypto exchange Coinbase. When it launched there, the bank signaled it intended to add more public blockchains over time, Cointelegraph reported.

The bank had already flagged a move outside Base in January, when Digital Asset and Kinexys by J.P. Morgan announced their intent to collaborate on the native issuance of JPM Coin on the Canton Network, a blockchain built with privacy features for coordinated financial markets. Under that collaboration, institutions using Canton would be able to issue, transfer, and redeem JPMD near-instantly, with an initial focus on establishing the technical and business frameworks to support issuance, transfer, and redemption directly on the network.

"This collaboration brings to life the vision of regulated digital cash that can move at the speed of markets," said Yuval Rooz, co-founder and CEO of Digital Asset, in the January announcement. Naveen Mallela, global co-head of Kinexys by J.P. Morgan, said at the time that the token pairs the safety of deposits issued and settled by a bank with round-the-clock, near real-time transactions on a blockchain.

JPMorgan's broader blockchain push

The expansion takes JPMorgan's blockchain work past its in-house Kinexys network, which handles upwards of $7 billion in daily transactions, a small piece of the bank's $12 trillion a day payments business, CoinDesk reported. JPMorgan has been among the most active banks in the sector, having processed significant transaction volume through Kinexys, formerly known as Onyx, according to KuCoin.

Banks have embraced tokenization, but mostly away from public networks. In the U.S., JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, along with more than a dozen other banks, have plans to start a shared network for tokenized deposits, CoinDesk reported. Outside the country, JPMorgan counts among the 30-plus banks working with Swift, the interbank messaging service, to shape the features and governance of Swift's planned blockchain-based ledger.

Almost $50 billion worth of crypto assets are locked in Ethereum-based applications, according to DeFiLlama data cited by CoinDesk. Putting JPM Coin on Ethereum could make institutional players more comfortable with public blockchain rails and possibly prompt rival banks to do the same, KuCoin reported.

What remains unknown about the rollout

Details on the specific scope of the Ethereum rollout, including which institutional clients will have access and what transaction types will be supported, were not fully specified in available reporting, according to KuCoin. Landriault gave no timeline for when the token would go live on the network.

JPMorgan had not responded to a CoinDesk request for details by publication time, and Cointelegraph said it contacted the bank for additional details but did not receive an immediate response. Available reporting indicates the expansion is aimed at institutional clients, not retail users, and does not indicate a shift toward retail cryptocurrency products at JPMorgan.

Conclusion

JPMorgan plans to make JPM Coin, its dollar-denominated deposit token for institutional clients, available on Ethereum, extending a rollout that began on Coinbase's Base network in November 2025 and was followed by a January plan to issue the token natively on the Canton Network. The bank has said Ethereum's liquidity and its existing use among institutional clients drove the choice, and the token will remain restricted to approved institutional participants.

The next concrete step is the Ethereum launch itself, for which Landriault gave no date. JPMorgan had not responded to requests for further detail from CoinDesk or Cointelegraph by publication time, leaving the timeline, eligible clients, and supported transaction types to be confirmed as the rollout progresses.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will JPM Coin be available on Ethereum?

No date has been given. Emma Landriault, head of Kinexys Labs at JPMorgan's blockchain division, did not say when JPM Coin would become available on Ethereum, CoinDesk reported. JPMorgan had not responded to requests for details from CoinDesk or Cointelegraph by publication time.

Why did JPMorgan choose Ethereum for JPM Coin?

Emma Landriault said JPMorgan chose Ethereum because the blockchain offers more liquidity than rival networks and is already used by institutional clients. The bank said Ethereum's liquidity makes it attractive for crypto companies seeking blockchain payments and financial firms settling trades or backing tokenized assets.

Who can use JPM Coin on Ethereum?

Only approved institutional clients. While the tokens are issued on public networks, JPM Coin will remain restricted to approved institutional participants, Cointelegraph reported. Available reporting indicates the expansion targets institutional payments and asset settlement rather than retail use.

How is JPM Coin different from a stablecoin?

JPM Coin is a deposit token representing a direct claim on dollar deposits held at JPMorgan, a regulated bank. Stablecoins are typically issued by non-bank companies backed by separate reserve assets. That distinction matters for institutional treasurers and compliance teams facing stricter rules on counterparty risk and custody.

What other blockchains support JPM Coin?

JPM Coin first launched in November 2025 on Base, the Ethereum layer-2 network built by Coinbase. In January, JPMorgan and Digital Asset announced plans to issue the token natively on the Canton Network, a privacy-enabled blockchain for institutional finance. Ethereum is the latest addition, with no launch date disclosed.

Sources

Ethereum Price Today: ETH Holds Near $2,417 With $3,000 Recovery Hinging on ETF Flows

Ethereum Price Today: ETH Holds Near $2,417 With $3,000 Recovery Hinging on ETF Flows

by | Oct 19, 2026 | Ethereum

The ethereum price today stood near $2,417 as of October 18, 2026, leaving the second-largest cryptocurrency roughly 24% below the $3,000 level it last traded above in January, according to 24/7 Wall St. The token enters the October 19 session after an 18.5% slide from its 2025 closing price of $2,967.

The gap matters because reclaiming $3,000 has become the market's shorthand for a genuine recovery, and the path there now runs through a short list of technical and fund-flow conditions, 24/7 Wall St. reported. Ether remains 51.1% below its August 2025 record high of $4,946, underscoring how far the token sits from both round-number resistance and its prior peak.

Ethereum Price Today After a Two-Week Slide

October has erased much of Ether's summer advance, and the ethereum price today reflects that reversal. The token closed at $2,706 at the start of the month, then shed 11.6% across the next two weeks, with a 5.2% decline in the week ended October 17, according to 24/7 Wall St.

Selling pressure pushed ETH to an intraday low of $2,313 on October 15, its weakest point since the $2,220 trough reached on August 20. Closing prices near $2,420 on October 14 and October 16 were the softest since mid-September.

The pullback follows Ether's best monthly close of 2026, a September finish at $2,684. Buyers have since probed the $2,684 to $2,807 band without holding it, 24/7 Wall St. reported, leaving the ethereum price today well short of that range.

What a $3,000 Recovery Requires

From $2,417, ETH needs a gain of about 24.1%, or roughly $583 per coin, to reclaim $3,000. The first major hurdle sits at $2,807, the intraday high set on September 21 and the highest point since July; even clearing that would leave another 6.9% to the target, according to 24/7 Wall St.

The token last changed hands above $3,000 in January, when it hit a monthly high of $3,405, and it has not returned to that level since peaking at $2,474 in February. The most recent monthly close above $3,000 came in October 2025 at $3,846.

24/7 Wall St. outlined three conditions for a credible run at the mark: ETH must hold above the $2,313 October low, Ether ETFs must flip from outflows to steady inflows, and the price must break above $2,807 and stay there. A close below $2,313 could drag the token toward the $2,220 August low and push the $3,000 objective into 2027, the outlet reported.

ETF Outflows Weigh on the Ethereum Price Today

Funds that hold ETH on behalf of investors have recorded heavy net redemptions. Between October 1 and October 16, Ether ETFs saw $955 million leave, according to SoSoValue data cited by 24/7 Wall St., with every day in that stretch posting outflows except October 13, which drew $24.8 million.

The redemptions imply fund managers are selling ETH to meet investor withdrawals, and 24/7 Wall St. reported that several weeks of steady inflows would likely be needed to underpin a $3,000 push. Although the required 24% gain keeps the target mathematically within reach, the direction of flows argues otherwise for now, the outlet said.

Ether has delivered rallies of this size before. From an April 2025 close of $1,794, the token climbed to $3,698 by July 2025, a 106% rise in three months, but that advance was powered by strong buying momentum that the current ETF outflow data shows is absent, according to 24/7 Wall St.

Bitcoin's Lead and the Hoodi Test

Over the 60 days to October 17, ETH and Bitcoin posted nearly identical returns, up 26.3% and 26.1% respectively. The past month diverged, however: Bitcoin gained 6.8% while ETH slipped 1.1%, a split that suggests Ether is lagging even in a steadier market, 24/7 Wall St. reported.

Bitcoin traded at $81,977 as of October 18. Further gains in the largest cryptocurrency could pull ETH higher and put the $3,000 objective back within reach, according to the outlet.

Developers are set to trial bigger blocks on the Hoodi testnet on October 26. The sandbox lets developers experiment without risking user funds, but such milestones rarely move the ethereum price today or draw sustained investor interest, 24/7 Wall St. reported.

Levels to Watch Into Year-End

The markers 24/7 Wall St. identified include a daily finish above $2,807 before November ends, backed by positive weekly ETF inflows. Without those developments, the outlet reported, the $3,000 target will likely stay out of reach in 2026.

On the downside, the $2,313 intraday low from October 15 is the line bulls need to defend, with the $2,220 August low below it. Whether ETH can mount a serious recovery by year-end depends on this narrow set of conditions falling into place, according to 24/7 Wall St.

Conclusion

Ether entered the October 19 session near $2,417, about 24% below $3,000, after a two-week slide and $955 million in October ETF outflows through October 16. The recovery case rests on holding the $2,313 low, a turn to sustained ETF inflows and a decisive break above $2,807, with a daily close above that level by end-November cited as the key confirmation. Absent those signals, 24/7 Wall St. reported, the $3,000 target likely waits until 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the ethereum price today, October 19, 2026?

Ether stood near $2,417 as of October 18, 2026, according to 24/7 Wall St. That is down 18.5% from the 2025 closing price of $2,967 and leaves the token about 24% below the $3,000 level it last traded above in January.

How much does ETH need to rise to reach $3,000?

From $2,417, ETH needs a gain of about 24.1%, or roughly $583 per coin. The first hurdle is the $2,807 intraday high from September 21; clearing it would still leave another 6.9% to the $3,000 target.

How much have Ether ETFs lost to outflows in October 2026?

Ether ETFs recorded $955 million in net outflows between October 1 and October 16, according to SoSoValue data cited by 24/7 Wall St. The single exception in that stretch was October 13, when the funds drew $24.8 million in inflows.

What conditions does ETH need to reclaim $3,000 in 2026?

24/7 Wall St. listed three: ETH must hold above the $2,313 October 15 low, Ether ETFs must shift from outflows to steady inflows, and the price must break above the $2,807 September high and stay there. A daily close above $2,807 by end-November with positive weekly inflows is the key signal.

What happens if ETH falls below $2,313?

A close below $2,313 could push ETH toward the $2,220 low recorded on August 20, according to 24/7 Wall St. Such a move would likely delay any $3,000 attempt until 2027.

Sources

BIS Paper Finds Banks Can Slow Stablecoin Adoption by Raising Deposit Rates

BIS Paper Finds Banks Can Slow Stablecoin Adoption by Raising Deposit Rates

by | Oct 19, 2026 | Adoption

Banks may already hold a counterweight against stablecoins such as USDT and USDC: the interest paid on an ordinary savings account. That is the conclusion of a working paper released by the Bank for International Settlements on October 13, 2026, titled "Are stablecoins and bank deposits substitutes?" and issued as BIS Working Paper 1382 by Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro, according to Crypto Briefing.

The finding matters because it reframes the contest between banks and stablecoins as a pricing problem rather than a technology race. Reserve-backed stablecoins function as partial stand-ins for conventional deposits, the paper concludes, meaning the two products compete for the same pool of money, and that deposit pricing gives banks a degree of control over how quickly stablecoins spread.

What the Stablecoin Adoption Data Shows

The study drew on weekly U.S. figures covering January 2019 to June 2025. Aldasoro, a BIS economist, and Ahmed, of the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics, determined that stablecoin expansion decelerates whenever banks lift what they pay depositors. That window covers a dramatic stretch for the sector, with stablecoin market capitalization climbing from less than $5 billion to more than $220 billion, Crypto Briefing reported.

Across the sample, stablecoin market cap grew roughly 15% over a typical 10-week stretch, the baseline against which the rest of the findings should be read. The central estimate shows that a single basis point added to deposit rates corresponds to about 3 percentage points shaved off stablecoin market cap growth across a 10-week span. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, and the 3 percentage point figure comes from the authors' ordinary least squares estimates, Crypto Briefing reported.

Using instrumental variables estimates instead, the measured effect rises to about 9 percentage points. Decrypt and kucoin framed the same result in growth terms: a one-basis-point rise in deposit rates, sizable for savings rates that typically move slowly, trimmed average ten-week growth from about 15% to roughly 12% under the baseline estimate, and to about 6% under a second method designed to isolate cause and effect. In both cases, growth slowed but did not reverse, CryptoNews reported.

USDC More Exposed Than USDT

USDC absorbed the heavier blow, losing roughly 4.8 percentage points of growth for every basis point added to deposit rates, according to Crypto Briefing. USDT, by comparison, showed a reaction of 1.9 percentage points.

The authors attributed the difference to USDC's closer ties to U.S. users, a pattern they said was consistent with Circle's USDC being more integrated with the domestic banking system. The relationship was stronger for Circle's USDC than Tether's USDT, Decrypt and CryptoNews reported.

The pattern extended beyond tokens sitting in wallets. Stablecoins supplied to decentralized finance protocols showed the same sensitivity, while non-stablecoin crypto assets displayed no comparable response, with bank deposit rates having no significant effect on them, Crypto Briefing reported.

The 3% Threshold and the Rate Environment

The wider interest-rate backdrop adds another layer to the results. Above a federal funds rate of roughly 3%, the authors identified a nonlinear effect, Crypto Briefing reported. Savings rates barely move until the policy rate crosses about 3%, after which banks reprice them far more quickly, according to Decrypt and kucoin.

Near-zero rates leave depositors and stablecoin holders earning essentially the same thing: nothing. As rates climb, the spread between a yield-bearing deposit and a token that pays nothing grows too wide to dismiss, Crypto Briefing reported. The authors used that pattern in bank behavior to distinguish causation from coincidence, according to kucoin.

The sample stretches from the era of rock-bottom rates through the subsequent tightening cycle, a stretch during which the stablecoin sector expanded more than fortyfold. The research summary describes the mechanism as a pricing channel through which the banking industry can influence stablecoin demand, Crypto Briefing reported.

GENIUS Act Limits Issuer Response

The dynamic is now being codified into law. President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act in July of last year, a measure that effectively made stablecoins legal in the United States and laid down rules governing how they are issued, used and held in custody, according to Decrypt and kucoin.

The law includes a specific provision in Section 4(a)(11) stating that no permitted payment stablecoin issuer or foreign payment stablecoin issuer shall pay holders any form of interest or yield solely in connection with holding, using, or retaining a payment stablecoin, Forkast News reported. The rules take effect January 18, 2027, leaving issuers unable to match bank deposit rates head-on.

The prohibition applies only to the issuers themselves. Crypto exchanges and third-party platforms remain free to pay interest on stablecoins held on their platforms, creating a bifurcated market where the yield is decoupled from the underlying asset's issuance, Forkast News reported. Meanwhile, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Treasury are writing rules to implement the GENIUS Act, according to kucoin.

Limits of the Research and What Comes Next

The BIS authors are explicit about the limits of what they can claim: the work does not establish losses of deposits or lending, and its sample covers a single high-rate episode, so the findings describe one rate cycle rather than a law of the market, according to CryptoNews and Forex Crunch. Working papers reflect the authors' views, not necessarily the BIS's, and the sample spans a single high-rate cycle in which stablecoins paid holders no interest, Decrypt and kucoin reported.

The authors said regulators should weigh whether stablecoin issuers may pay holders yield, along with the trade-offs of requiring issuers to keep part of their reserves in bank deposits, according to Decrypt and kucoin. Banks have lobbied to prohibit stablecoin yield, and the dispute was prominent during the Clarity Act's failed Senate vote, kucoin reported.

The scale of the potential substitution has been flagged before. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned in January that as much as $6 trillion in deposits could move into stablecoins and related products offering returns, potentially reducing lending capacity and raising borrowing costs, according to CryptoNews and Forex Crunch. A December Federal Reserve staff analysis explained that money placed in stablecoins can return to banks as issuer deposits, changing who supplies banks' funding even when total deposits remain unchanged, CryptoNews reported.

For policymakers, the research summary notes that stablecoin adoption may be closely linked to the interest rates banks offer savers, and that the relationship carries implications for both monetary policy and regulation, Crypto Briefing reported. The next datapoint is the deposit-rate response: how quickly banks in major markets reprice savings products as policy rates shift, and whether stablecoin issuer yields widen or narrow the gap, according to Forex Crunch.

Conclusion

The established finding is narrow but pointed: higher bank deposit rates predict slower stablecoin market growth, the effect is stronger for USDC than USDT, and banks retain influence over adoption through deposit pricing. The paper does not show that stablecoins have reduced bank deposits or lending, and its sample covers one high-rate cycle. The next concrete steps are regulatory: the OCC, FDIC and Treasury are writing rules to implement the GENIUS Act ahead of its January 18, 2027 effective date, while the authors say regulators should weigh whether issuers may pay yield and the trade-offs of requiring reserves to sit in bank deposits.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did BIS Working Paper 1382 find about stablecoins and bank deposits?

The paper, published October 13, 2026 by Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro, found that stablecoins and bank deposits behave as partial substitutes. A 1 basis point rise in U.S. deposit rates lined up with roughly 3 percentage points less stablecoin market cap growth over 10 weeks, and about 9 points under instrumental variables estimates.

Why is USDC more sensitive to deposit rate increases than USDT?

USDC lost about 4.8 percentage points of growth per basis point of deposit repricing, versus 1.9 points for USDT. The authors attributed the gap to USDC's closer ties to U.S. users and institutions, suggesting the more integrated a stablecoin is with the domestic banking system, the more sensitive it is to that system's yields.

How does the GENIUS Act affect stablecoin issuers' ability to compete with banks?

Section 4(a)(11) of the GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025 and effective January 18, 2027, bars permitted payment stablecoin issuers from paying holders any interest or yield for holding their tokens. Exchanges and third-party platforms remain free to pay interest on stablecoins held on their platforms.

Does the BIS paper prove stablecoins drain bank deposits or lending?

No. The authors state the work does not establish losses of deposits or lending, only a correlation in growth patterns. The sample covers a single high-rate episode between 2019 and 2025 in which stablecoins paid holders no interest, so the findings describe one rate cycle rather than a permanent law.

What did Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warn about stablecoins?

Moynihan warned in January that as much as $6 trillion in deposits could move into stablecoins and related products offering returns, potentially reducing banks' lending capacity and raising borrowing costs. The BIS paper suggests that outcome is not fixed if banks reprice deposits competitively.

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