Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP Risk Extending Bearish Streak as Fed Week Looms
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday, changing hands at $79,863.55 after losing 1.6% in a day and 3.8% in a week, according to CoinGecko data cited by Coinpedia. Ether dropped 2.7% to $2,310.09, XRP lost 2.6% to $1.28 and Solana slipped 2.2% to $100.59, leaving traders asking whether Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are at risk of extending their bearish streak.
The declines matter because they come ahead of a packed macro week. Traders are cutting risk before a Federal Reserve policy decision, fresh US PCE inflation figures and a wave of quarterly results from roughly a fifth of the S&P 500, Coinpedia reported.
Finance Magnates put bitcoin at $79,979 on Binance at 08:22 UTC on Monday, roughly 6% under the peak of $84,898 reached last Wednesday. Ether, XRP and Dogecoin all touched prices not seen since August, the outlet reported.
Equity selloff spills into crypto
The selloff began on Thursday, as concerns over funding for artificial intelligence spending weighed on technology shares, Finance Magnates reported. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%, its worst session since June, and Meta Platforms lost about 7%.
Lorris Beziers, senior DeFi analyst at Tesseract Group, said on Thursday that the decline resembled stock-market nervousness flowing into bitcoin instead of a new shock originating within crypto itself, according to Finance Magnates.
US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw outflows of $635.6 million on Thursday, followed by $137.9 million more on Friday, according to Farside Investors data cited by Finance Magnates. Those two days of withdrawals erased over $1 billion that had entered the funds across the prior three sessions.
The pullback follows a strong run. FM Intelligence data reported by Finance Magnates showed bitcoin up over 40% across the third quarter, its strongest quarterly performance since late 2024, and down just 0.4% for the month through October 20.
Liquidations and the Fed calendar
CoinGlass data showed $440.9 million in crypto liquidations over 24 hours by Thursday evening, with $397 million of them long positions, Finance Magnates reported. Coinpedia noted that recent trading has repeatedly flushed out leveraged retail bets, with the next big pocket of forced liquidations clustered around $78,800.
Macro pressure is adding to the strain. Oil prices climbed 4% on Thursday, with Brent crude reaching $113.17 a barrel as Middle East tensions flared, a development that keeps inflation concerns alive ahead of the Fed's decision on Wednesday, Finance Magnates reported.
In September, the central bank lifted its target range by a quarter point to between 3.75% and 4.00%, while consumer prices climbed 3.7% over the year to that month. A hold is priced for this week, but Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo, said on Friday that CME FedWatch still put the odds of a December hike at about 75%, according to Finance Magnates.
Wednesday brings the Fed's rate announcement, Thursday delivers core PCE inflation readings, and Friday sees roughly $11 billion worth of bitcoin options reach expiry on Deribit, Finance Magnates reported.
Bitcoin tests $80,000 support
Bitcoin ended Friday's session at $81,189, beneath a key threshold, and slipped below its 50-day exponential moving average, which now sits around $80,793, during weekend trading, Finance Magnates reported. That puts bitcoin back inside its August-September range.
The token now sits on the psychological $80,000 level, and Saturday's low reached $79,221. The 200-day EMA near $76,344, about 4.5% lower, could still slow the decline, but bitcoin now has plenty of room to correct, according to Finance Magnates.
Jeff Anderson, head of US at STS Digital, said on Friday that a break below $80,000 "will force selling and liquidations," but his desk sees that level as a place to buy. "We favor buying dips to $80k and owning tail risk puts on these prices," Anderson said.
Coinpedia's analysis framed the downside in similar terms: a sharp move toward $76,000 would signal a genuine downtrend, while continued choppy trading would point to another short-lived range that traps buyers on brief rallies.
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, said on Thursday that he still sees bitcoin range-bound between $80,000 and $85,000 until the US midterm elections, Finance Magnates reported. For Tesseract's Beziers, the test is whether ETF inflows return while bitcoin holds the $80,000 to $81,000 area into the Fed meeting.
Ethereum and XRP levels to watch
Ether broke its October support near $2,393 and has closed lower four days in a row, with Monday's candle red again at $2,314, Finance Magnates reported. The last of its key averages, the 200-day EMA near $2,318, has stopped the decline so far, and ether is testing it again now; Saturday's dip to $2,280 did not end with a daily close below it.
A daily close below that average would send ether back toward the psychological $2,000 level, about 14% lower, according to Finance Magnates. Below that sits the $1,819 to $1,919 zone, where ether consolidated in July and August, 17% to 21% under the current price.
XRP is still holding support between $1.28 and $1.32, but it now trades below both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which leaves it in a downtrend, Finance Magnates reported. It was at $1.277 on Monday, down 1.3%, and is the last of the four major tokens still sitting on support.
Instead of a clean rebound, XRP's chart drew two almost identical falling boxes, Finance Magnates reported. XRP dropped out of the second one and then retested it from below, which confirmed the breakdown. Dogecoin has already broken support at $0.080 and trades below both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, near $0.077 on Monday.
XRP decoupling talk meets correlation data
XRP barely budged this week while Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana tumbled, sparking talk of a long-awaited decoupling, 24/7 Wall St. reported. XRP fell just 0.1% over the week, making it one of the most stable major cryptocurrencies, while Bitcoin fell 2%, Ethereum fell 3.4% and Solana fell 2.8%.
With XRP at $1.30 and Bitcoin near $80,268, some XRP holders speculate the token may be starting to decouple from Bitcoin. But the correlation data, the ETF flows and a brutal 30-day track record tell a more complicated story, the outlet reported.
XRP's daily returns over the past seven days showed a correlation of 0.97 with Bitcoin's movements, indicating they moved almost identically during this period, according to 24/7 Wall St. Over longer periods, the correlation remains strong at 0.91 over 30 days, 0.89 over 90 days and 0.85 historically.
Over the past 30 days, XRP has dropped 18.8%, compared with Bitcoin's relatively mild 5% decline, the outlet reported. Year-to-date, XRP is down 29.1% while Bitcoin is down 7.7%, and over the past year XRP has lost 49.8% against Bitcoin's 27.7% decrease, a pattern that suggests XRP tends to follow Bitcoin but often more sharply during price drops.
ETF flows, shorts and Ripple Swell
One factor that could push XRP away from Bitcoin is the flow of funds into spot XRP ETFs, which directly hold the token, 24/7 Wall St. reported. From October 19 to October 23, these funds saw a net inflow of about $4.3 million, including around $709,000 on October 21 and $3.5 million on October 22.
However, the ETFs' net assets shrank from $1.77 billion on September 25 to $1.48 billion on October 23, indicating that price declines outweighed the inflows, and a few million dollars per day is insufficient to steer XRP away from Bitcoin's influence, the outlet reported. Spot XRP ETFs traded only $18.8 million on October 23, down from over $102 million on October 2.
Reports indicated a rise in XRP margin shorts on Bitfinex, increasing from approximately 148,850 to around 300,000 in under two weeks, according to 24/7 Wall St. While these figures are unconfirmed, if XRP begins to rise, short sellers may be forced to buy back coins, creating a short squeeze that drives up demand.
The upcoming Ripple Swell conference from October 27 to 29 in New York, combined with XRPL Apex, Ripple's developer conference, could also matter, the outlet reported. While past conferences have not led to long-lasting rallies for XRP, any agreements related to payments or tokenized assets on the XRP Ledger could generate demand independent of Bitcoin.
Conclusion
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP enter a decisive week with prices pressing against support levels that have held since August. Bitcoin sits on the psychological $80,000 mark after closing below its 50-day average, ether is retesting its 200-day EMA near $2,318, and XRP is holding a $1.28 to $1.32 band while trading in a confirmed downtrend. The next concrete catalysts arrive in sequence: the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday, core PCE inflation data on Thursday and roughly $11 billion in bitcoin options expiring on Deribit on Friday. Analysts say the key test is whether ETF inflows return while bitcoin holds the $80,000 to $81,000 area into the Fed meeting, and whether XRP can attract sustained spot ETF demand large enough to loosen its 0.97 correlation with Bitcoin.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin fall below $80,000 on Monday?
Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on Monday, trading at $79,863.55, down 1.6% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data cited by Coinpedia. The selloff started Thursday when worries about funding artificial intelligence spending hit tech stocks, and traders cut risk ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, US PCE inflation data and earnings from about 20% of S&P 500 companies.
What happened to US spot bitcoin ETF flows last week?
US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds lost $635.6 million on Thursday and another $137.9 million on Friday, according to Farside Investors data cited by Finance Magnates. The two days of outflows reversed more than $1 billion of inflows recorded over the previous three sessions.
What are the key support levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP?
Bitcoin sits on the psychological $80,000 level, with the 200-day EMA near $76,344 below it. Ether is testing its 200-day EMA near $2,318, and a daily close below it could send prices toward $2,000. XRP is holding support between $1.28 and $1.32 but trades below both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs.
Is XRP decoupling from Bitcoin?
Not according to the data. XRP fell just 0.1% over the week while Bitcoin fell 2%, but XRP's daily returns showed a 0.97 correlation with Bitcoin over seven days, and 0.91 over 30 days, according to 24/7 Wall St. Over the past 30 days XRP dropped 18.8% against Bitcoin's 5% decline, suggesting it still follows Bitcoin, often more sharply.
What events this week could move crypto prices?
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, with a hold priced in but CME FedWatch putting December hike odds near 75%, according to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev. Core PCE inflation data follow on Thursday, and about $11 billion in bitcoin options expire on Deribit on Friday. Ripple's Swell conference runs October 27 to 29 in New York.
