Nvidia stock bets on Polymarket put a 90% probability on the shares closing above $140 in November, Yahoo Finance reported, after the stock fell 5.53% in Tuesday's regular session. The outlet said cryptocurrency bettors remained skeptical about a rebound by the end of the month.
The Nvidia stock bets span price levels below and above Tuesday's closing price of $168.80, according to Yahoo Finance's figures. The publication said the market assigned a 14% chance to a rebound above $200, a price higher than the stock's close.
Nvidia stock bets across price levels
The Nvidia stock bets also put a 76% chance on a close above $150 and a 65% chance on a close above $160, Yahoo Finance reported. Polymarket is based on Polygon, according to the publication. The reported probabilities declined as the closing-price thresholds increased.
Each of those closing thresholds, as well as the $140 level, was below Tuesday's closing price, according to Yahoo Finance's figures. A close above one of those levels would not by itself establish that the shares had returned to Tuesday's price. The $200 figure concerned the probability of a rebound above that price.
The distinction puts the largest reported probability in context. The 90% figure concerned a close above $140 in November, while Yahoo Finance said bettors were skeptical about a rebound by month's end. The threshold for that bet was lower than the price at which Nvidia finished Tuesday's regular session.
The $150 and $160 closing levels also sat below the Tuesday close, but carried lower probabilities than the $140 threshold, according to Yahoo Finance's figures. The publication reported a separate probability for a rebound above $200, rather than another chance of closing above a level below Tuesday's price.
The $150 threshold carried a probability 14 percentage points lower than the $140 threshold, while the $160 threshold was 11 points below the $150 figure, according to Yahoo Finance's reported odds. Those comparisons concern the three November closing thresholds. The publication described the $200 figure separately as the chance of a rebound above that level.
Share declines and trading
Yahoo Finance said Nvidia shares had fallen more than 11% over the preceding week and more than 25% over the preceding month, alongside weakness across the AI sector. The publication reported those declines as the shares faced selling pressure and cryptocurrency bettors assessed the prospects for a rebound.
In Tuesday's regular session, the shares ended at $168.80 after losing 5.53%, Yahoo Finance reported. The publication, citing Benzinga Pro, said the stock gained 1% in after-hours trading. The after-hours gain followed the regular-session decline rather than changing the reported closing price.
Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings showed a weaker price trend for Nvidia over short, medium and long time frames, according to Yahoo Finance. That assessment covered several periods, while the publication's figures for the recent share decline described the preceding week and month.
The weekly and monthly figures describe overlapping periods rather than losses that can simply be added together. Yahoo Finance reported the Tuesday decline separately as the change during that day's regular session, with Benzinga Pro providing the subsequent after-hours figure. Benzinga's trend assessment, also cited by Yahoo Finance, covered short, medium and long time frames rather than just one trading session.
Analyst targets and upcoming results
The Nvidia stock bets came as analysts at CitiGroup and Wells Fargo lowered their price targets for the chipmaker, Yahoo Finance reported. The publication described Nvidia as a Santa Clara-based semiconductor and AI computing company and reported the target cuts alongside the prediction-market odds.
The analyst targets and the Polymarket figures are different measures of the stock's prospects. Yahoo Finance reported the target reductions by the two firms' analysts alongside probabilities assigned by bettors to Nvidia price levels. The reported market figures ranged from the chance of a close above $140 to the probability of a rebound above $200.
Nvidia is scheduled to release its third-quarter financial results, Yahoo Finance reported. The available details identify November for the release but do not give a complete date. The report of the coming results followed the share declines and the reductions in the analysts' price targets.
Huang and an independent investigation
Yahoo Finance reported the Nvidia stock bets alongside an account of weaker sentiment following an admission by CEO Jensen Huang. The outlet said Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair with a woman suspected of ties to Chinese intelligence. The reported intelligence ties were described as suspicions.
Yahoo Finance also reported that Kim and law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz would conduct an independent investigation. Kim previously served as acting U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York, according to the publication. The available details do not specify the investigation's scope.
Conclusion
Among the price levels reported by Yahoo Finance, Polymarket assigned a 90% chance to an Nvidia close above $140 in November and a 14% chance to a rebound above $200. The publication said shares fell 5.53% in Tuesday's regular session and gained 1% in after-hours trading. It also reported that CitiGroup and Wells Fargo analysts had lowered their price targets. Nvidia is scheduled to release third-quarter results, according to Yahoo Finance, although the available details do not give a complete release date.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Polymarket's Nvidia stock odds for November?
Yahoo Finance reported that Polymarket assigned a 90% chance to Nvidia closing above $140 in November. The publication put the probabilities of closes above $150 and $160 at 76% and 65%, respectively, while a rebound above $200 had a 14% probability.
Where did Nvidia shares close on Tuesday?
Nvidia shares closed at $168.80 on Tuesday, down 5.53% in the regular session, according to Yahoo Finance. Citing Benzinga Pro, the publication also reported a 1% gain in after-hours trading. The $140, $150 and $160 closing thresholds cited for Polymarket were all below Tuesday's closing price.
What did Yahoo Finance report about Jensen Huang?
Yahoo Finance said sentiment had weakened after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair with a woman suspected of ties to Chinese intelligence. The publication also reported that cryptocurrency bettors remained skeptical about a rebound in Nvidia shares by the end of the month.
Which firms lowered their Nvidia price targets?
Yahoo Finance reported that analysts at CitiGroup and Wells Fargo cut their targets for the Santa Clara-based semiconductor and AI computing company. The moves were reported alongside Polymarket odds, which reflected the betting market's probabilities for Nvidia share prices rather than the analysts' price targets.
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