Bitcoin is the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency, a sort of digital asset that records, signs, and sends transactions across the Bitcoin blockchain without the oversight of a central authority. The Bitcoin network was established in January 2009 by an anonymous computer programmer or group of programmers under the alias “Satoshi Nakamoto.” The network is a peer-to-peer electronic payment system that employs bitcoin as a cryptocurrency to transmit value via the internet or as a store of value like gold and silver.
The newsletter’s publishing date will stay unchanged, and the content will continue to focus on technical and fundamental analysis of cryptocurrencies from a macro perspective to spot important movements in investor mood and market structure.
Is it time to go long?
Bitcoin’s (BTC tickers down $20,737) price has risen this week, reaching $21,000 on Oct. 26. This prompted a few traders to declare that the bottom had been reached or that BTC was entering the next phase of some technical structure such as Wyckoff, a range break, or some form of support resistance flip.
Before we get all positive and open 10x longs, let’s go back to a previous analysis to see if anything has changed in Bitcoin’s market structure and whether the recent burst of bullish momentum is indicative of a larger trend change.
When the last update was released on September 30, Bitcoin was trading at about $19,600, remaining within the range of the previous 136 days of price action. I discovered bullish divergences on the weekly relative strength index (RSI) and moving average confluence divergence at the time (MACD). There were also a few potential “bottoming” signs from other on-chain indicators that were at multi-year lows.
The Bollinger Bands are Quite Tight.
The Bollinger Bands on the daily period remain constrained, and this week’s leap to $21,000 was the expected expansion or increase in volatility. After breaking out from the upper arm, the price has retraced to test the mid-line/mid-band (20MA) as support, as is customary.
Despite the severity of the rise, Bitcoin’s price remains capped below. For the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s “record-low volatility” has been the talk of the town, and when utilizing the Bollinger Bands, GMMA, and BVOL, the tighter price range does hint at expansion, but in which direction is unknown.
Bitcoin has been trading in the $18,600-$24,500 area for 36 days, and the price remains towards the middle of that range according to technical analysis. The rise to $21,000 did not result in a substantial daily higher high or break out of the present range, which is effectively a lateral chop.
For the time being, the price is above the 20-day moving average, but it has yet to cross over the 50-day moving average, and the majority of the Oct. 26 gain has been retraced back to the low $20,000 area.
In The Future
Multiple data points appear to indicate that Bitcoin’s price is undervalued and in the process of forming a bottom, but none indicates that the market bottom has been reached.
Several Bitcoin mining companies have openly acknowledged the need to restructure debt, and the possibility of missed debt payments, and some have even hinted at impending bankruptcy this week and in previous months.
Since June, most publicly traded miners have been selling the majority of their mined BTC, and recent stories about Compute North and Core Scientific suggest that Bitcoin’s price is still vulnerable owing to solvency difficulties among industrial miners.
According to Glassnode data, the aggregate size of miner balances is roughly 78,400 BTC and is “held by miners we have labeled (accounting for 96% of current hash rate).” According to Glassnode, in the event of “income stress,” miners may be obliged to liquidate tranches of these reserves in the open market, and the effect on Bitcoin’s price might be the next spark of a sell-off to new yearly lows.